The Final Bargain: What Would China Have to Give for a US Concession?

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the Trump administration is seriously considering a concession on Taiwan, what would the final bargain have to look like? Former official Sarah Beran argued for a “high bar,” but what would be a price so high that it would make a historic policy shift palatable to Washington?
A mere reduction in military activity would likely be insufficient. A truly monumental price would have to involve a fundamental change in China’s own strategic posture. This could include a formal, written, and verifiable renunciation of the use of force against Taiwan, effectively taking the military option off the table.
In the economic realm, the bargain would have to go far beyond agricultural purchases. It would likely require a complete overhaul of China’s state-led economic model, including the dismantling of subsidies, an end to forced technology transfer, and full market access for U.S. firms—concessions that Beijing has steadfastly refused to make.
On the geopolitical front, the U.S. might demand that China cease its militarization of the South China Sea and accept the ruling of the international tribunal. It could also demand a halt to China’s global campaign to poach Taiwan’s diplomatic allies.
The reality is that the price for such a core U.S. strategic interest is almost certainly higher than anything China is willing to pay. Beijing is asking for a concession on what it considers a non-negotiable “core interest,” and it is unlikely to offer up any of its own in return. This highlights the fundamental imbalance in the request and underscores why, for most foreign policy experts, the only acceptable bargain is no bargain at all.